Trade Deals Are Less Important Than Easy Money - best toothbrush in the world

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Economists often abuse power.
As a social science, economics is far less accurate than "real" science such as physics or chemistry.
Physicists can build large and complex models that can prove effective.
The first contact between the economic model and real life collapsed.
But economists are at a disadvantage.
Physicists and chemists can carry out control experiments to compare what happens in one set of cases to situations in which the other group only changes one factor.
There is no such opportunity for people trying to understand financial markets. But last weekend did provide an interesting hint that a truly controllable experiment would reveal the factors that affect the prices of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
Recently, there have been two different trends in the market.
The first is the "trade war" between the United States and the United States ". S. and China.
Any sign of peace is not conducive to higher-risk assets and vice versa.
The second is the central bank.
At the beginning of December, it seems that all major central banks will sharply tighten the already extremely loose monetary environment.
The theory is that cheap money will increase the risk of higher assets, while expensive money will have the opposite effect.
You can also throw in the United States. S.
The government is closed.
As it enters its sixth week, there is concern that it will begin to have a negative impact on the economy.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank reported a moderate turn, saying that the risks facing the economic outlook had shifted to the downside, paving the way for direct assistance to the troubled banking sector of the African continent as soonas entered.
Thursday also brought an interview with CNBC. S.
S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said,S.
The trade agreement with China is still several miles away. Before U. S.
The market opened on Friday came news of the People's Bank of China's easing of monetary policy. The People's Bank of China has lowered the bank's reserve requirement ratio and effectively allowed banks to lend.
On Friday afternoon, President Donald Trump suddenly announced that the government shutdown was over, although he did not get any concessions on border security.
This is what happened to the S & P 500 in the last three days of last week: Ross's comments caused the S & P 500 to fall briefly, but there was a reversal at the end of the transaction.
Subsequently, the European Central Bank announced the same rebound.
After the People's Bank of China News, the stock market opened higher, but the US stock market closed higher. S.
The government shutdown has little impact.
Of course, this is a long way from a truly controlled experiment.
But it does add weight to what I have been trying to fight for a while.
Concerns about the Trump agenda, especially the trade war, have little impact on the market.
What's really important is 1)
(Ii) monetary policy
The strength of China's economy.
The poor performance of global risk assets last year overlaps with disappointing Chinese data, while the rout that ended on Christmas Eve overlaps with the increasingly tough statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
So, keeping a close eye on China this week and preparing Powell for an interesting press conference Wednesday following the Fed's monetary policy meeting is probably the most meaningful.
To find out how much changes have taken place in people's perceptions, I suggest that TS LombardU publish a study on Friday. S.
Economist Steven blitz
Recall what was the most shocking market after Powell's December
The Federal Open Market Committee's press conference was his assumption that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was reduced (
Or quantitative tightening)
Not even a monetary policy tool that can continue to be automated to some extentpilot.
But, as blitz pointed out, Powell sent out some signals that he had changed his mind: in other words, Powell will enter the market on Wednesday and the market is ready for him
Turn the age, a full 180-
His view of the balance sheet was only expressed last month.
The risk of disappointment is great, but whatever he said after the FOMC meeting, it is more important than Ross's admission that trade peace with China is still "a few miles away. Here -
Finally, this is a promised Book Review.
Earlier this month, when I sent out a request for recommended reading, the most popular recommendation so far was the real situation of the late Swedish public health expert Hans Roslyn, who died of pancreatic cancer in 2017.
Written and completed by his son and daughter. in-
Law, fact is an extraordinary job beyond classification.
Most people should read it.
I want to say that it has two purposes.
We would like to point out that the developing world is developing at a far faster pace than almost anyone in the developed world can grasp, and that the world is in a much better shape than we thought.
The second is to provide antidote to those who are called "excessive"
Dramatic thinking.
In this way, it is almost like the work of behavioral psychology, correcting many of our flaws in perception and reasoning, especially those related to the developing world.
This is a very important argument, and we tend to look at the world "over. dramatically.
"We obviously contributed to this in the media, but in doing so, we met everyone's requirements.
They provide examples of flawed thinking, but now we can do it.
We want to divide the world into "us" and "them" and think about it from a huge gap-the most obvious is the gap between the richest and poorest people.
We tend not to take into account the gap between the two, but the world is at many different stages of development and simple differences like "emerging" and "developed" do not work.
Instead, these drawstrings provide four levels of development.
The first three countries are much poorer than the Western countries expected, but they offer very different prospects.
A simple example involves dental hygiene.
On the first level, people clean their teeth with their fingers.
There is a home toothbrush on the second floor.
At Level 3, everyone in the family has their own toothbrush, while those at level 4 are convinced that it is worth buying an electric toothbrush.
The point is to see what is happening within the gap between the richest and poorest.
For more information on this, check out rosling's excellent gap minder website.
They proved early on that most readers thought the world was worse than with pop quiz: Glory was told the answer was C.
The vast majority of children on the planet receive at least some vaccinations before their first birthday.
However, when the question was raised to the audience of investment bankers, 88% chose answer.
The following article by Roslyn strongly suggests that the financial community has been systematically missing a great opportunity.
He wrote: To put it this way, it seems that Rosslyn is right to think that investors have missed a huge opportunity to "fail at work.
The developing world is already much more developed than many of us understand.
The terrible scene of famine inspired Live Aid concerts in 1985 and is no longer the norm.
I spent many years listening to what investment bankers thought was not convincing about the "frontier market.
Rosslyn's argument so far is the best I have ever heard.
Combining it with the work of Ricardo Osman of Harvard University on developing transferable skills in the economy shows that there are increasing opportunities on the edge of the Indian Ocean, from East Africa to Pakistan and India, the possibility of investment is very obvious.
The problem of hindering investment in the developing world (
Phrases that Roslyn doesn't like)
Compared to any physical limitation, it is now more related to the lack of financial infrastructure.
Investment subsidiaries
Sub-Saharan Africa or other less developed regions need to give a lot of trust to those operating private equity funds.
In fact, opportunities exist often with highprofile do-
Good rock stars like Bob Geldof and Bono will only make things worse in the eyes of established investors.
Since MSCI launched the "frontier markets" index in 2002, it has aligned with the broader emerging markets index.
Its recent performance has been disappointing, and even the MSCI world index, which covers developed countries, is slightly ahead.
Despite significant growth in this area: This accurately shows that the public equity market is not the best way to invest in the developing world.
The different categories of MSCI refer to the degree of development of the stock market, not the degree of economic development, and most of the frontier markets do not have enough depth and liquidity to allow profitable investment.
Anyone who has a luxury for a long time-especially a donation fund-should now try to find any other way to invest in a developing economy, and we now know, with the help of facts, much better than almost anyone of us thought.
Let me come up with an idea that came up in a few weeks of forced reading.
From the email I received, there are a lot of readers out there.
Moreover, many of you have followed the advice of my own books over the years.
I will focus on facts with writing.
There are a few more books in the next few weeks.
This leads to a suggestion.
I know the readers are busy, but would it be interesting if I tried to start a "book club?
I will nominate a book every month and then try to lead a public discussion after four weeks.
We can cover the latest hot books, or we can try to read classic books that many of us may not have read from start to finish.
I can't have as much marketing influence as Oprah does, but at least this effort opens up opportunities for some sharp and interesting pun on my last name.
Is there anyone "author?
I may help people who are busy with life by reading at least one relevant book every month to keep their brains running and open their horizons. Let inter-activity rule.
I will do it if I am interested.
Contact the author of this story: John Authers from jauthers @ bloomberg.
NetTo contacted the editor in charge of the story: Robert Burgess of bburgess @ bloomberg.