best stocks 2003 - oral b electric toothbrush sale

From Currency Magazine: 7 stocks-Safety. Reliability. True value. NEW YORK (Money Magazine)-
When we end the stock market's third consecutive year of decline, conventional wisdom has never been as worthless as it is now ---
That's why the traditional recovery seems unlikely.
At least that was the premise for the editors and writers of the Currency Magazine to start, when we started sorting out the best investment List of 2003.
You will notice when you read our selection, for example, our list is largecap bias --
This bias contradicts the long history of small stocks taking the lead in recovery from the bear market.
From our point of view, big companies have put us in trouble;
They should be able to lead us out.
Overall, we expect 2003 to be a stable year for stocks.
The problem now is that company leaders are too nervous to spend money on people or equipment.
An outstanding CEO described the dilemma like this: "deep pockets, short arms ".
"The stock market is key to the confidence of top management," responded Mark Zandi, chief economist for the economy. com.
Zandi said the CEOs won't take a big risk until the market rewards them.
Nevertheless, we are more conservative about the 2003 choice than our overall optimism might determine.
Given the extreme predictability of the market, it seems unwise to take risks.
So after counting the data and interviewing dozens of analysts, economists and fund managers, we bought seven stocks that were not only good for the recovery, but if not, downside protection will also be provided.
Cautious and optimistic people call it a portfolio.
Dell computers, Gillette, Hewitt United, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, Philip Morris, and Wyeth are the first choice.
Click on any name and jump directly to the analysis of Money Magazine.
Recommended prices as of December.
Deadline for the January issue of Money Magazine.
To understand why we are optimistic about Dell's 2003 prospects, first consider what the world's leading computer manufacturer has just achieved.
In 2002, IDC, a technology tracking company, described the year as the "Worst Year Ever" in the IT industry, and Dell expanded its profit margins and increased revenue per employee.
Profits of 2002 will grow at 23%. If Dell (
Dell: research, evaluation)
In the year when global technology spending has actually fallen, all this can be done (by 2.
3%, according to IDC)
Imagine what the industry might do when it's actually growing.
In our view, a lot.
That's why we think Dell is well positioned.
After three to five years, desktops and servers often become obsolete or costly to maintain.
With American companies buying so much computer hardware in the first two years of Y2K, the outbreak of new IT spending is inevitable and overdue.
Ned Riley, chief investment officer at Dow global consultants, is very optimistic about Dell's 2003 outlook, and he believes that the 24% earnings growth forecast by analysts is too conservative.
"Most of today's forecasts reflect the negative emotions that have accumulated over the past three years," said Riley . ".
Yes, Dell has a high price/earnings ratio. -
Dell shares are about $29 per share, 29 times next year's expected earnings. -
But we believe Dell's marketing and cost advantages make it one of the safer ways to bet on a technology renaissance.
In any case, Dell continues to steal market share from competitors such as Gateway and Sun Microsystems.
Considering Dell's caution in entering the printer business.
"If Dell is aggressive about the price of printers and cartridges, it will put pressure on HP --
Packard responded in kind, "said Charles Wolfe of Needham.
Dell is his preferred analyst.
This, in turn, will weaken HP's ability to compete on PCs and servers.
"Another positive factor is the sudden opening of Michael Dell --
Thinking about the problem of dividends.
Although Dell has $9 billion in cash and liquid investments, Dell has long refused to pay dividends, but used excess cash to buy back shares.
But as Congress talks about relaxing the dividend tax, Michael Dale tells Money that he will "absolutely consider the dividend" if Congress takes action"-
What he wants to see happen. --
At the end of 1990, Gillette became dull.
Its 1996 acquisition of Duracell, the battery maker, has not met a collaborative commitment.
Mistakes in money
The cost of the Minting razor division has ballooned and revenue has fallen.
But thanks to the new CEO, Gillette's advantage is becoming more and more obvious.
Bank of America consumers said: "In terms of the situation before Jim Kiltz, the company has no rest day and night.
Bill Steele, product analyst
After three games, Kirtz was at the helm in early 2001.
One year as CEO of Nabisco.
He has a long and impressive record among consumers.
After leading Philip Murray's global food sector, the world of products (
Including Kraft Foods and General Foods)
He served as president of Kraft America. At Gillette (
G: research, estimation)
He introduced the new series of Mach 3 Turbo and Oral B toothbrush.
He also launched a plan to cut costs by $0. 35 billion by 2006 by shutting down underutilized factories and streamlining global operations.
In 2003, Gillette will launch promising new products, including sensors 3.
Disposable Shaver.
Given that the profit of the razor and blade business is as high as 43%, the successful release of Sensor 3 may have a considerable impact on Gillette's profit.
While Gillette has a 70% market share in the shaving system, the battery situation is different.
Its Duracell business has lost its share of Energizer, and 24% of Gillette's $8 revenue today comes from Energizer.
Sales were $6 billion, but only $ 11%.
Profit 7 billion.
The skirt is starting to make progress. -
To revive the brand, he cut down on overhead costs, cut inventory and increased advertising spending.
Good so far.
Duracell's operating margin increased from 11% in 2001 to 16% in 2002.
Market share has grown from 42% to 40%, the first increase in profits for Duracell since 1999.
Wall Street began to notice this slowly.
At the latest $30, Gillette rose 11% from a low of $27.
Revenue is expected to grow by 15% in 2002, and stock trading is 28 times revenue in the first four quarters.
Average of 34 years.
Jim Gingrich of Sandford Bernstein said Gillette was "in the third round of getting better.
I think there will be more. " --
Going back to topYou, knowing that when a data processing and outsourcing company became one of the hottest initial public offerings in 2002, time was weird.
Perhaps because Hewitt already has its own franchise.
Ill Lincoln County.
According to Dell Gifford, the company was incorporated in 1940 (
Worked in the company for 30 years and served as CEO for the past 10 years)
Have had double
In the past 40 years, there has been a digital increase in income in 38 years.
But because many companies are struggling to manage their pension liabilities and soaring health insurance costs, Hewitt is the right company at the right time. Two-
Thirty Hewitt (
HEW: Research, estimates)$1.
72 billion of the revenue comes from the outsourcing business, which deals with employee record keeping, paperwork and endless issues regarding health benefits, accounting for 401 (k)plan.
The other three in the business are people-
Resource Consulting practices, among other things, help companies compress numbers for their pension plans.
We especially liked that Hewitt's outsourcing department signed three words. to five-
The annual contract brings a stable and predictable revenue stream to it.
Harvey Bondi, manager of William Blair's portfolio, said investors "should seize the opportunity to own such a company ".
According to Gartner's recent forecastS.
Outsourcing market for human resources
The authority expects to grow by 20% this year and next, to reach $60 billion by 2004.
Analyst Robert T.
Rowe Price, Hewitt's largest shareholder, said that the company has-
Drawer technology and its famous brands will help it gain more market share.
This promising opportunity and industry integration-
Hewitt acquired the leading US company. K.
Competitors in 2002-
That's why CEO Gifford decided to push forward the IPO plan regardless of the market situation.
He said: "It is disturbing to see the market hit every day during the roadshow, but it is also clear that listing will enhance our long-term competitive power. term success.
Since the initial public offering in June, Hewitt has made considerable gains.
The financial year ending the report was 16% per cent. 30).
The outlook is also booming, with Wall Street predicting an annual profit growth of 19% over the next five years.
In addition, its customers are composed of Fortune 500 companies such as Johnson & Johnson and General Electric, and none of them account for more than 10% of sales.
Despite the market turmoil, Hewitt's potential has not been fully explored.
Since its listing, shares have risen from $19 to the most recent $33, with a price-earnings ratio of 2003 Times.
But Blair's Bundy believes the stock still looks cheap compared to outsourcing rivals ADP and Paychex.
Brian Gerber of the Kronos Fund, which owns about 1 million shares, said that given the company's growth rate, the stock could reach $43 this year. --
Back at the top, we are looking for companies in the troubled financial sector that can attract investors once the market disappears.
In weighing the purchase of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and even J. P.
We acquired a financial stock that was not affected by the SEC investigation, with no immeasurable litigation risk, and was not the target of the pesky state attorney general. Our choice?
Northern Chicago trust
That's why: even if the stock market plummeted, there are still many rich people around ---2.
In fact, 5 million of Americans have more than $1 million in investable assets.
In addition, it is expected that this part of the population will grow at a rate of nine times that of the total population.
All asset managers want a rich asset, but the Northern Trust (
NTRS: research, estimation)has a 113-The beginning of the year.
In a hand-in-hand industry
Holding is important. this old institution already has a branch near many of the richest communities in the United States.
"We create an environment where people feel like they have people who listen to them," said William Osborne, CEO of Northern Trust . ".
Yes, the collapse in the market caused losses to the bank's business and revenue fell by 5%.
But to offset the impact of the decline in sales, Northern Trust cut spending by closing down poorly performing offices and limiting executive pay.
Meanwhile, the bank has been looking for new businesses and is planning a rebound in the market.
Osborne plans to open 17 new offices (
Atlanta recently)
By 2005, the total had reached 100.
Thanks to the reputation of the Northern Trust, the stock has long been at a premium in the market.
But shares fell by 33.
5% per cent in 2002.
Culprit: decline in income (
Profit is expected to decline by 4% in 2002, but will increase by 7% in 2003)and write-
Returns on non-performing loans and venture capital
Capital investment.
The stock was priced at $40, well below $89 at the end of 2000.
It now trades at 18 times the market's P/E ratio of 2003 earnings-
Far below its five.
Average annual 28.
In addition, the North paid 1. Yield of 7%.
Jeff Van Harte, Pan Am Super equity fund manager who owns the stock, is betting that the stock will regain its premium valuation. --
Driven by the threat of terrorism and the prospect of war with Iraq, the United StatesS.
The defense budget will grow by 15% next year to $379 billion.
This is good news for Northrop Grumman.
The biggest defense contractor.
Northrop has expanded rapidly through a series of acquisitions and now has a range of products to supply the national armed forces. Its arsenal-
Including Navy destroyer, Global Hawk drone, F-
22 surveillance system for fighter and early warning aircraft
Sales of Northrop reached $14 billion in 2001.
In 2003, these products will bring up to $26 billion in revenue.
That's because Northrop.
NOC: research, evaluation)
Acquisition of defense contractor TRW-
The deal will only be a little smaller than the main competitor, Lockheed Martin.
"TRW is the apex acquisition.
"It gives us the ability to make us an absolute power," said CEO Kent Crespo . ".
Some investors have withdrawn from Northrop by the time Northrop completed the complicated process of selling the TRW Auto sector and obtaining federal approval for the merger.
That's one of the reasons why stocks fell 29% from 52. week high.
Rob Petrie, a stock analyst at MFS Investment Management, recently owned four companies.
5 million Northrop shares noted that TRW made Northrop a participant in the field of satellite defense, and that this military expenditure may increase, thus making Northrop even stronger. Trading at 18.
5 times the income of 1.
7% dividend yield, which looks cheap given the growth potential of Northrop.
In fact, defense will be the sector most likely to benefit from the war in Iraq, and you have a stock of value that can be used as a market hedge. --
Going back to topip Morris and going to be known as ochia by February, it's an impeccable good --run company.
This is very profitable.
This is also an abandoned place, which is why Big Mo is so valuable.
Where else can you find a company with a P/E ratio of £ 8, a dividend yield of 7%, and a business protected by non-scalable barriers to entry?
These days, Philip Morris (
MO: Research, estimates)
The story is particularly striking.
The unstable economy and the rising sin tax once made loyal customers clamoring for cheap cigarettes.
Given that Philip Morris earned 90% of his income from the United States, it was a tough breakthrough. S.
Cigarette sales from Marl Road, Virginia Slim and other premium brands.
On November, Dinyar Devitre, chief financial officer of Philip Morris, told Wall Street that he could not confirm an early estimate of revenue growth of 8% to 10% in 2003, which caused the stock to plummet;
Recently, they traded at $38, down 35% from a high point.
Now, Wall Street expects profit growth from Philip Morris to reach 5% in 2003.
Take the dividend yield of 7% into account, and suddenly you see an attractive return of 12%.
Of course, there is always a threat of more litigation, but so far it has little impact on Philip Murray's ability to continue to grow his income
The average growth rate in the past three years was 14%.
Ron Muhlenkamp, fund manager, Muhlenkamp, explained, "We have so many state attorneys who are looking forward to getting funding from these lawsuits, they are basically debt holders, and they are
"If that's not enough to convince you, then how about this: Susan Bourne, manager of Gabelli Westwood Equity, 100 monetary fund, Philip Morris became the top 10 for holding Kraft shares only (
KFT: research, estimation).
Philip Morris owns 84% of the food giant.
So essentially you will get the country's second-to-none food stock at 17 p and a big discount. --
Back to the topic, why is Wyeth, a former American family product, the cheapest among the big drugmakers?
Its combination of drugs and vaccines can treat all diseases from arthritis to depression, with little threat of patent expiry, and is enjoying fast-expanding sales.
The company has reached lucrative cooperation agreements with biotech companies such as MedImmune and other pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson.
It also has nearly 8% of the biotech King Amgen.
Why so cheap?
On July, Wyeth (
WYE: research, estimation)
A study shows that women who take hormones to stop menopause symptoms are at a higher risk of cancer, a leading manufacturer of female hormone substitutes.
At the same time, the company is concerned about its ability to produce enough baby vaccine Prevnar to meet the surge in demand.
Results: Stocks fell 38% in 2002 (through Dec. 2)
And close to the bottom of five months. year P/E range.
This valuation makes it possible for Wyeth to become one of the candidates for a big rebound this year.
First, the company is moving quickly to reassure investors that it is solving its manufacturing problems.
"There is absolutely no reason why we cannot reliably supply Prevnar to the market," CEO Robert Essner asserted . ".
Essner pointed out that 2003 should see an important product release from the company: the nasal flu vaccine FluMist developed by Wyeth with MedImmune may be approved this year, just in time for the next flu season. [
Editor's note: December.
On the 17 th, the Food and Drug Administration advisory group voted that FluMist was safe and effective for healthy people between the ages of 5 and 49.
This means that the FDA may approve the FluMist sale because the agency usually follows the advice of its team members. ]
While sales of Wyeth Hormone replacement therapy may decline, Chris Jenner, manager of T.
Rowe Price health science believes investors will be surprised by the strong performance of other Wyeth products in 2003.
For example, sales of Prevnar are expected to grow by more than 50% in 2003.
That's why Wyeth's revenue should grow by 11% this year.
As a bonus, Wyeth's investors received a dividend yield of 2. 4 percent. --